סין
אירופה
סינגפור
וייטנאם (הרפובליקה הסוציאליסטית של)
אנגולה
ארצות הברית
נמיביהAccelerated growth driven by investment in oil, gas and mining
Economic growth is expected to continue accelerating in 2026. The country has adopted measures to enhance the attractiveness of the hydrocarbon sector, notably through greater transparency in the awarding of contracts and the granting of tax breaks in order to increase production by both stabilising mature fields and drilling new wells. In April 2025, TotalEnergies announced plans to invest USD 500 million to ensure the sustainability of the Moho Nord offshore field (approximately 100,000 barrels/day) while launching new exploration activities. At the same time, China Oil Natural Gas Overseas Holding Ltd (COGO) plans to invest USD 150 million over three years to develop the Conkouati-Koui and Nanga III fields. At the end of 2025, a USD 23 billion agreement was signed with the Chinese company Wing Wah to modernize the infrastructure of the Banga Kayo, Holmoni and Cayo permits, drill new wells, with a target of increasing production by 200,000 barrels/day by 2050, and enhance production, including gas. Oil production is expected to slightly exceed the OPEC quota (277,000 b/d) in 2026, while remaining below the record high of 329,000 b/d reached in 2019. The gas sector will also support growth, driven by the Congo LNG project on the Marine XII offshore block. ENI's commissioning of a second floating terminal in 2025, the Nguya FLNG, will bring production capacity to 3 million tonnes per year, destined for export to Europe and national power generation. In addition, the adoption of a new Gas Code in 2026 will clarify the sector's taxation and licensing conditions in order to attract more investors. Economic diversification remains at the heart of the 2022-2026 National Development Plan (PND), but the development of agriculture (9% of GDP) and services (39%) remains limited. The mining sector will continue to expand, still dominated by artisanal mining but supported by several structural projects. Mining of the Mbalam-Nabeba iron deposit, which extends into neighbouring Cameroon, began in May 2024 and is expected to eventually become the world's fifth-largest ore mining centre. For potash, the British company Kore Potash is continuing to develop the Kola project, located in the Sintoukola basin. With an estimated potential of 50 million tonnes over 23 years, construction of the facilities is expected to begin in 2026. Last, domestic demand will be supported by resilient private consumption and dynamic public investment.
In 2026, inflation is expected to remain close to the 3% ceiling set by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC). Lower global energy prices and the appreciation of the CFA franc against the US dollar are containing inflationary pressures, but episodic shortages of electricity, water and fuel pose upside risks. In December 2025, the BEAC raised its key interest rate to 4.75% – the first monetary tightening move since March 2023 – ahead of an expected slowdown in regional growth. The decision was motivated by a desire to preserve its foreign exchange reserves, which fell to 4.2 months of imports at the end of 2025 (compared with 4.9 months the previous year).
Oil price erosion is weighing on public and external accounts
Fiscal consolidation under the IMF's Extended Credit Facility (USD 455 million) is expected to continue in 2026, although its trajectory is uncertain due to the programme's expiration in March 2025. Public spending will remain high as the authorities continue to focus on reducing poverty, particularly through health and education, and the implementation of the 2022-2026 National Development Plan. However, the reduction in fuel subsidies will help control spending. Progress has been made in mobilising tax revenues thanks to lower exemptions, collection of tax arrears and the digitisation of procedures. Expansion of the gas and mining sectors will also contribute to strengthening non-oil revenues. Nevertheless, erosion of oil revenues on back of the fall in world oil prices is eating away at the public surplus, with oil accounting for 60% of tax revenues. Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to continue to decline in 2026, supported by the gradual clearance of payment arrears, which accounted for 15% of the debt stock at the end of October 2025, compared with 32% in 2020. Nevertheless, the ratio will remain above the ceiling of 70% of GDP set by CEMAC. The restructuring of 85% of regional debt in 2024 will result in savings on debt servicing costs of around CFAF 700 billion (EUR 1 billion) over 2024-2028. Nevertheless, debt servicing still accounts for more than 10% of GDP and half of public revenue. Although the regional share of debt has increased (60% in 2025), reflecting a refocusing on the regional market in order to limit exposure to interest rate and exchange rate risks, in November 2025, the country issued a USD 670 million Eurobond (9.8% interest rate over 7 years). The majority of external debt is bilateral or multilateral (78% in 2024).
The emergence of a current account deficit in 2025 reflects the decline in oil prices—oil accounts for 90% of Congolese exports—and the increase in imports linked to economic diversification and the development of the hydrocarbon sector. The structural deficit in primary revenues will also weigh heavily due to the increase in repatriation of profits by oil companies. Foreign exchange reserves will remain under pressure, representing an average of only two months of import coverage in 2026.
President Sassou-Nguesso and the Congolese Labour Party maintain their tight grip
President Denis Sassou-Nguesso, 82, who has been in power for more than four decades, is expected to hold onto the presidency in the March 2026 election after his unanimous nomination as candidate of the Congolese Labour Party (PCT). In June 2025, nine opposition parties announced the creation of the Rally of Forces for Change (RFC) with the aim of forming a credible alternative to the ruling party. However, the coalition has not yet managed to agree on a common candidate. Holding nearly 74% of the seats in the National Assembly, the PCT is expected to retain a large majority in the legislative elections scheduled for July 2027. The elections are unlikely to be fair due to ongoing restrictions on the opposition's campaign and recurring allegations of electoral fraud. Failure to meet democratic standards, corruption and low levels of socioeconomic development will fuel growing social frustration and sporadic protests, which have no avenue for political expression.
The government will continue to prioritise its relations with China, its main partner for oil exports (36% in 2024) and a major source of imports, as it seeks to stimulate foreign investment in hydrocarbons and the nascent mining sector. Congo and Russia have long-standing ties. Russia is involved in the construction of Congolese infrastructure (hydroelectricity, roads, etc.) through the supply of equipment and materials, as well as in the agricultural, mining and oil sectors, in addition to provision of diplomatic and military support. In 2024, the two countries approved the construction of an oil pipeline between Pointe-Noire and Brazzaville, 90% of which will be owned by the Russians. Work could begin in 2026 and is expected to take three years. Last, France will remain an important partner despite tense relations, as will other Western partners, due to ongoing investigations into the President's family and corruption in general.
